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by Claire Walsh last modified 2006-09-20 14:51

Climate change Risk Assessment New Impact and Uncertainty Methods

The aim of CRANIUM is to develop new methodologies for analysing uncertainty and making robust risk-based decisions for infrastructure design and management in the face of climate change. In CRANIUM we will conduct new analysis of the uncertainties in downscaled climate scenarios, apply new methods in the analysis of system response to climate change and evaluate a range of methods for making robust risk-based decisions. CRANIUM will demonstrate the use of these advanced methods in the context of case studies of infrastructure design and management.

Specifically, the research has the following objectives:

1. to explore the cascade of uncertainty involved in the construction of climate scenarios for infrastructure and the built environment and to develop new methods for expressing these uncertainties in an appropriate form;

2. to develop practical methods for the quantitative assessment of system sensitivity to uncertain input variables; and

3. to demonstrate in climate adaptation decisions the use of risk-based multi-criteria decision-making and methods for decision-making under severe uncertainty.

Further information about the CRANIUM project can be found by following the links below:

                        CRANIUM presentation

                        CRANIUM summary document

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