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Workshop: use of probabilistic scenarios
SKCC WORKSHOP ON THE USE OF PROBABILISTIC CLIMATE SCENARIOS
IN IMPACTS ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION STUDIES
10 NOVEMBER 2006
Workshop objectives:
· To bring together climate scientists, scenario end users and stakeholders with an active interest in the impacts of climate change on the built environment, infrastructure and utilities
· To examine how probabilistic climate scenarios can be used in practice for planning, design and management of the built environment and infrastructure systems
· To identify potential engineering and science research challenges arising from the use of probabilistic climate scenarios
· To help prepare the end-user community for the arrival of probabilistic scenarios (such as UKCIPnext), so that they can be used most effectively when they emerge
· To disseminate the new climate and socio-economic scenarios work from the BKCC BETWIXT, CRANIUM and BESEECH projects
SKCC Briefing Paper 1 was produced before the workshop and provides a general background to probabilistic climate projections for non-specialists.
SKCC Briefing Paper 2 was produced after the workshop, and provides a summary of presentations and discussions, as well as identifting key messages.
Oral presentations:
| Author | Presentation |
|---|---|
| Jim Hall: Newcastle University | Introduction to SKCC |
| Clare Goodess: UEA | Workshop aims and objectives |
| Jake Hacker: ARUP | User perspective of probabilistic scenarios |
| Geoff Darch: Atkins Consultants | User perspective of probabilistic scenarios |
| Clare Goodess: UEA | Climate scenarios for the built environment - BETWIXT and CRANIUM |
| Roger Salmons: Policy Studies Institute | Socio-economic scenarios for the built environment - BESEECH |
| David Sexton and Geoff Jenkins: Hadley Centre | Preparing for the UKCIPnext scenarios |
| Rob Wilby: Environment Agency | Using probabilistic climate and inpacts scenarios in the Environment Agency |
| Suraje Dessai: UEA | Lessons learnt from working with probabilistic climate scenarios and Anglian Water |
| Rob Lempert: RAND, USA | Robust decision making in practice |
Poster Presentations:
Breakout Groups
Group 1: Putting theory into practice - lessons from using climate change scenarios in BKCC and other projects
| Author | Presentation |
|---|---|
| Neil Dixon: Loughborough University | Impact of climate change on slope stability |
| John Handley: Manchester University | Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change in Urban Environments: climate changes scenarios |
| Lucy Manning: Newcastle University | Effect of climate change on abstraction availability in the Thames |
Group 2: Are we ready for probabilistic scenarios?
| author | Presentation |
|---|---|
| Tom Dikjstra: Loughborough University | Climate Impact Forecasting For Slopes (CLIFFS) |
| Mark New: Oxford University | Issues in probabilistic climate data |
| Alan Pearman: University of Leeds | Are we ready for probabilistic scenarios |
| Tim Randle: Forest Research | Climate change impacts and probabilisic scenarios |
| Roger Street: UKCIP | Information needs of the UKCIP stakeholder community |
Two-day workshop:review