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Workshop: use of probabilistic scenarios

by Claire Walsh last modified 2007-09-13 12:42



10 NOVEMBER 2006

Workshop objectives:

·     To bring together climate scientists, scenario end users and stakeholders with an active interest in the impacts of climate change on the built environment, infrastructure and utilities

·     To examine how probabilistic climate scenarios can be used in practice for planning, design and management of the built environment and infrastructure systems

·     To identify potential engineering and science research challenges arising from the use of probabilistic climate scenarios

·     To help prepare the end-user community for the arrival of probabilistic scenarios (such as UKCIPnext), so that they can be used most effectively when they emerge

·     To disseminate the new climate and socio-economic scenarios work from the BKCC BETWIXT, CRANIUM and BESEECH projects

SKCC Briefing Paper 1 was produced before the workshop and provides a general background to probabilistic climate projections for non-specialists.

SKCC Briefing Paper 2 was produced after the workshop, and provides a summary of presentations and discussions, as well as identifting key messages.

Oral presentations:

Jim Hall: Newcastle UniversityIntroduction to SKCC
Clare Goodess: UEAWorkshop aims and objectives
Jake Hacker: ARUPUser perspective of probabilistic scenarios
Geoff Darch: Atkins ConsultantsUser perspective of probabilistic scenarios
Clare Goodess: UEAClimate scenarios for the built environment - BETWIXT and CRANIUM
Roger Salmons: Policy Studies InstituteSocio-economic scenarios for the built environment - BESEECH
David Sexton and Geoff Jenkins: Hadley CentrePreparing for the UKCIPnext scenarios
Rob Wilby: Environment AgencyUsing probabilistic climate and inpacts scenarios in the Environment Agency
Suraje Dessai: UEALessons learnt from working with probabilistic climate scenarios and Anglian Water
Rob Lempert: RAND, USARobust decision making in practice

Poster Presentations:

SKCC project teamSustaining Knowledge for a Changing Climate
Stephen Blenkinsop: Newcastle UniversityChanges in drought frequency and severity over the British Isles projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models 

 Aidan Burton: Newcastle University

 The Environment Agency Rainfall and Weather Impacts Generator

Hayley Fowler: Newcastle UniversityLinking probabilistic climate scenarios with downscaling methods for impact studies
Clare Goodess: UEABuilt EnvironmenT: Weather scenarios for investigation of Impacts and eXTremes (BETWIXT)
Clare Goodess: UEAClimate change Risk Assessment: New Impact and Uncertainty Methods
Ana Lopez: Oxford UniversityApplying probabilistic climate change information to strategic resource assessment: impacts on water resources
Lucy Manning: Newcastle UniversityThe impact of climate change on rail network reliability subject to rainfall: induced landslides
UKCIPWhat to expect from the next UKCIP climate change information package
Jean-Philippe Vidal: HR WallingfordProbabilistic assessment of the impact of climate change on UK river flows

Breakout Groups

Group 1: Putting theory into practice  - lessons from using climate change scenarios in BKCC and other projects

Neil Dixon: Loughborough UniversityImpact of climate change on slope stability
John Handley: Manchester UniversityAdaptation Strategies for Climate Change in Urban Environments: climate changes scenarios
Lucy Manning: Newcastle UniversityEffect of climate change on abstraction availability in the Thames

Report from breakout group 1.

Group 2: Are we ready for probabilistic scenarios?

Tom Dikjstra: Loughborough UniversityClimate Impact Forecasting For Slopes (CLIFFS)
Mark New: Oxford UniversityIssues in probabilistic climate data
Alan Pearman: University of LeedsAre we ready for probabilistic scenarios
Tim Randle: Forest ResearchClimate change impacts and probabilisic scenarios
Roger Street: UKCIPInformation needs of the UKCIP stakeholder community

Report from breakout group 2.

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